...and getting GDP to measure India's data economy, recommends Ajit Balakrishnan.
'My concern is that, although everything is expressed in monetary terms, you are effectively combining values that have been adjusted using different price measures.'
The Indian government has implemented several measures to mitigate external risks, support the balance of payments, and maintain macroeconomic stability amidst the ongoing West Asia crisis, according to Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary.
The World Bank has affirmed India's strong position to withstand the current global energy shock, citing high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space, and low inflation as key buffers supporting continued growth despite international headwinds.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
'The West Asia or the Gulf crisis has shown that what we develop as national infrastructure when things are not as bad as they could be, we forget to plan for adversities.'
India's new national accounts will leverage new data sources and surveys to enhance the measurement of the country's informal economy, and introduce double deflation methods across sectors, replacing the current system that relies on a single deflation mechanism in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations.
Elevated global crude oil and natural gas prices, driven by geopolitical developments in West Asia, could significantly influence the Government of India's fiscal position for 2026-27, according to a report by ratings agency Icra.
Every week, hundreds of people line up to fill a plastic container with food in an unlikely place: the humble home where Argentine soccer legend Diego Armando Maradona was born.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
The Union Budget for 2026-27, presented by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday, which was a first, had an excellent domestic macro backdrop. According to the first advance estimates, gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices is projected to grow 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, against 6.5 per cent in 2024-25.
'The real risk is not that AI will fail to transform India's economy.'
'The risk is that it already is -- while our measurement systems continue to look the other way,' observes Nishant Sahdev, a theoretical physicist at the University of North Carolina.
The Indian economy recorded a six-quarter high growth of 8.2 per cent in July-September, as factories churned out more products in anticipation of a consumption boost from the GST rate cut, according to government data.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
In a bid to promote the use of domestic currency for cross-border settlements, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday announced a slew of measures, including allowing banks to lend in Indian Rupees to non-residents from Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka for bilateral trade.
The aggregate net worth of the country's 176 dollar billionaires dropped to $984.2 billion during 2025, down from a record $1,036.2 billion at the end of December 2024.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
The idea of back-loading the target of fiscal consolidation is perhaps guided by the government's desire to be prepared for any adverse developments in the coming year, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat addressed concerns about population imbalance, citing religious conversion, infiltration, and low birth rates as key factors. He advocated for 'ghar wapasi' and vigilance against infiltrators, while also emphasizing the importance of family and employment.
'Credit growth in India remains in double digits, even though corporate borrowing is subdued.' 'Corporate credit is weak because companies are cash-rich and cautious amid global uncertainty.'
On Agri Stack, Expenditure Secy V Vualnam says it's progressing well; using IT, farmers will be able to choose exact fertiliser quantities needed, reducing crowding at fertiliser outlets.
Governments should move away from universal subsidies towards tightly targeted transfers, backed by stricter eligibility norms, sunset clauses and periodic audits to curb leakages and improve spending efficiency, a joint study by Asian Development Bank and PwC has recommended.
Capex, infrastructure development, and prudent fiscal management are the key focus areas in the Budget, says Nilesh Shah.
New Delhi will substantially reduce tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods while continuing to protect sensitive sectors. Tariffs on some agricultural products that are not traditionally considered sensitive will be brought down to zero, while in the case of relatively sensitive items, duties will be reduced in a graded manner and quotas will be imposed.
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) has topped the Perpetual Capital Hurun India Impact 50 - 2026 list with 53.9 points (on the scale of 0-100), reflecting a strong performance across key sustainable development goals (SDGs), including climate, water, circularity, gender and biodiversity.
'It is best to remain vigilant. Tarique Rahman arranged arms smuggling to Indian insurgent groups.' 'He has criticised India for sheltering Sheikh Hasina, but has also sought India's support.'
Supported by strong buoyancy in public sector capital expenditure (capex), growth in infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in 2025-26 (FY26) compared to 2024-25 (FY25), according to the First Advance Estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY26 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday revised upward its growth estimates for the current fiscal year to 6.8 per cent and lowered its inflation projection to 2.6 per cent based on an above-normal monsoon and the rationalisation of GST rates.
India's informal economy and service sector accounts for over three-fifths of its $1.8 trillion economy.
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
'This Budget has a one-year agenda, which you can call the sprint, and the marathon is towards Viksit Bharat.'
Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.
'For those in for the long haul, this is a God-given opportunity.' 'Your market is falling despite strong fundamentals, and such a clear roadmap has been announced.'
The fiscal tilt towards capex benefits companies in investment-related sectors like capital goods, defence equipment, engineering & construction and metal & mining. The planned cut in revenue expenditure will weigh on companies in consumption sectors like FMCG, consumer durables and retail.
'Global uncertainty is something which definitely occupies the minds of officials when we are preparing for the Budget.'
In a world fractured by uncertainty, India stands out for its policy consistency, paired with sustained ambition, points out Pritam Banerjee.
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